Tomorrow: Norwich North gives its verdict

NORWICH EVENING NEWS

The eyes of the nation will be on Norwich tomorrow as voters finally get to cast their votes in a contest overshadowed by the sacking of Ian Gibson and the expenses scandal.

Yesterday's campaign saw Lord Mandelson, Ken Clarke and Vince Cable all visited the city for Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

Yet news that Labour's Chris Ostrowski had been taken ill with suspected swine flu became the biggest talking point of a contest which has largely failed to catch the public imagination.

Ironically Mr Ostrowski was struck down as a new national opinion poll suggests Labour's fortunes are showing signs of a recovery.

Ipsos Mori found that backing for Labour was up for the second consecutive month from its historic low of 18pc in May to 24pc now.

Satisfaction with the Government has also improved slightly, from 16pc to 19pc in the past four weeks.

But 75pc said they were dissatisfied with the government, while backing for the Tories has also increased, suggesting that voters are returning to the major parties as the dust begins to settle after the MPs' expenses revelations.

Support for David Cameron's party rose two points to 40pc, giving the Tory leader an overall poll lead among those certain to vote of 16 points.

The Liberal Democrats were down one on 18pc, although satisfaction with party leader Nick Clegg hit a new peak of 44pc, compared to 28pc who were dissatisfied.

The Ipsos Mori poll found that support for smaller parties had fallen by four points to 18pc since last month, when they performed particularly well in local and European elections.

Yet how that will translate at the ballot box in Norwich tomorrow, where both the Greens and Ukip have fought hard, is still anyone's guess.

Private Lib Dem canvassing suggests that the party is lying second to the Tories, on 24pc. But other party canvassers report that the Greens are performing strongly in traditional Labour areas - and Dr Read was generally seen to have performed well in a BBC TV debate on Monday night.

The bookies are also predicting a clear win for the Tory candidate Chloe Smith with one, Paddy Power, offering odds of just 1/25 for a Conservative victory.

Labour is 10/1, the Greens 16/1, and independent candidate Craig Murray 20/1 - better than both the Lib Dems (33/1), and Ukip (80/1), while the BNP is 200/1.

Lord Mandelson said it was time to move on from the fallout over Dr Gibson.

“Voters have to think about the future and how their interests are best served,” he said. “The by-election has been clouded by the fury over MPs expenses and allowances and the individual case of Ian Gibson - that's inevitable. But what we are seeing shaping up is a clear choice between Labour and the Conservatives about the sort of country we want.”

Lib Dem shadow chancellor Vince Cable said the by-election was an “important barometer” for the next general election and would show how deep a problem that the Labour government has with its support.

“We know its support is crumbling and it's coming to our advantage, but we won't know until Thursday just how deep that is,” he said. “I think there are still doubts about the Tories, particularly in terms of economic policy, it's a very different mood from the 1990s when people were expecting a change of government and were genuinely enthusiastic about the alternative.”

But Ken Clarke said a Tory win on Thursday would be another sign of a need for change in the country.

“It's going to reinforce the message for change and a fresh start,” he said.

And he had his own unique message to Conservative candidate Chloe Smith.

“Good luck Chloe, see you at the shop when you turn up!” he said.